The global cocoa market is facing a new supply question as dry weather in Côte d’Ivoire raises concerns about the development and quality of the next cocoa crop.
Cocoa markets have recently been caught between two competing signals. On one side, stronger cocoa arrivals from Côte d’Ivoire have pointed to improved supply. On the other, recent weather conditions are creating fresh concerns about the country’s upcoming crop.
Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s largest cocoa producer, has experienced below-average rainfall across several major cocoa-growing regions. Farmers have reported that insufficient moisture is affecting the development of small cocoa pods intended for next year’s harvest, with some pods reportedly falling prematurely.
The concerns come after a period of significantly stronger production. Côte d’Ivoire harvested approximately 2.06 million tonnes of cocoa between June 2025 and June 2026, about 30% more than the previous year.
A Market Pulled in Two Directions
The improvement in supply has contributed to pressure on cocoa prices during 2026. However, the latest weather concerns have brought supply risks back into focus.
According to the International Cocoa Organization, its daily cocoa price was US$5,711.13 per tonne on September 24, 2026, compared with US$5,649.06 on September 23. London cocoa futures were also higher on September 24.
The movement highlights how sensitive the cocoa market remains to changes in production expectations.
If dry conditions continue, the development of the next crop could be affected. Farmers have also raised concerns about the quality of beans currently being harvested because overcast conditions can make proper drying more difficult.
What It Means for Chocolate Businesses
For chocolate manufacturers, cocoa supply is closely connected to production costs. Changes in the availability and price of cocoa beans can eventually influence the cost of cocoa butter, cocoa powder, cocoa liquor and finished chocolate products.
The current situation therefore gives manufacturers and buyers another factor to monitor as they plan their cocoa requirements for the coming season.
The market is not facing a confirmed supply shortage at this stage. Instead, traders and chocolate businesses are watching whether the recent weather problems develop into a more significant production issue.
What to Watch
The next few weeks will be important for the cocoa market.
Key indicators will include:
- Rainfall across Côte d’Ivoire’s major cocoa-growing regions
- Development of the next cocoa crop
- Cocoa arrivals at ports
- Bean quality and drying conditions
- International cocoa futures
- Global chocolate demand
For the chocolate industry, the bigger question is whether improved supply can continue to offset production risks in West Africa.
Macao Cacao will continue tracking the market developments shaping cocoa, chocolate production and the wider global chocolate industry.
