After two challenging years for the chocolate industry, there are signs that consumer demand is beginning to stabilise.
The industry was hit by a historic rise in cocoa prices, forcing manufacturers to raise prices and, in some cases, reduce product sizes. The effect was visible in consumer purchasing behaviour, with shoppers increasingly turning to cheaper alternatives.
Now, as cocoa prices have moved significantly lower from their previous peaks, chocolate manufacturers are beginning to see some improvement in volumes.
Demand Is Showing Early Signs of Improvement
Barry Callebaut reported that its global chocolate volumes increased by 3.2% in the third quarter of its 2025/26 financial year, marking the first quarterly volume growth in more than two years. However, the company also reported that the wider global chocolate market remained challenging.
The picture is similarly mixed in consumer markets.
In Switzerland, for example, chocolate volumes fell sharply in 2025 despite higher industry turnover, showing how higher prices can increase revenue while reducing the amount of chocolate consumers actually purchase. Analysts now see early signs that demand could be approaching a turning point.
Consumers Have Changed How They Shop
The cocoa-price shock has left a lasting mark on the chocolate category.
Smaller packs, different product formats and lower-priced alternatives became more important as consumers looked for ways to manage higher prices. Some of these changes may remain even as cocoa costs ease.
At the same time, chocolate remains a popular indulgence. U.S. industry data for the 52 weeks ending June 14, 2026, showed chocolate candy sales of $24.2 billion, up 7.2% from the previous period. Snack-size chocolate recorded particularly strong growth.
What the Recovery Could Mean for Chocolate Brands
For manufacturers, the changing market creates an opportunity — but not a return to the old market overnight.
Companies still need to balance cocoa costs, retail prices and consumer expectations. Brands that can offer consumers a convincing combination of taste, portion size, quality and value may be better positioned as purchasing habits continue to evolve.
The next phase of the chocolate market could therefore be less about simply increasing prices and more about finding the right balance between affordability and product value.
Macao Cacao will continue tracking the market data, consumer behaviour and business developments shaping the global chocolate industry.
